Poll: Arab Public Opinion 2006

Anti-Americanism is rampant in the MENA (full .pdf report).

Attitudes toward the U.S. from those in the Arab world have suffered greatly as a result of American foreign policy in the region, according to an Arab American Institute/Zogby International poll released today.

The results, presented by AAI President James Zogby, show that uncertainty resulting from conflicts in Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon have significantly dampened Arab confidence in U.S. leadership and prospects for economic development and political stability.

“Baker and Hamilton had it right,” Zogby said at the press briefing announcing the results. “U.S. policy regarding the Middle East is hurting our ability to lead a coalition in Iraq. Addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would provide us with much needed credibility from the Arab world.”

Mark Marc Lynch kindly crunches the data

MENA Blog Roundup (12/13/2006)

Marc Lynch (aka the aardvark): “I want to throw this out for discussion: in the not so distant future, we may be looking at the return of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.”

Why? Lynch notes that Nouri al-Maliki has lost the confidence of the US and holds no parliamentary mandate. Abd al-Aziz Hakim (of SCIRI) is presented as the current replacement for Maliki here in the US but he is also a figure complacent in the current sectarian/civil war driving the Sunni-Shi’a divide. A Sunni sponsored nationalist alliance is in the works that proposes to unite “Salah Mutlaq, a key secular Sunni leader…” and his “Iraqi National Dialogue Front, Muqtadar Sadr’s organization, and the al-Wifaq movement headed by Allawi (who recently returned from London to Amman), in a ‘nationalist’ (wataniya) front.”

Why Allawi? He’s an ex-Baathist secular Shi’a with an existing record. And he’s more palatable to the West (and US) than anyone else mentioned above at this time and he is not an Iranian puppet.

Full disclosure: Commenter’s at Abu Aardvark rejected this idea soundly… Lynch points out Allawi’s work of late with the insurgency, pointing to recent reports:

Brushing aside the results of Iraq’s democratic elections, the insurgents proposed that an emergency government be formed under Allawi’s leadership. Non-sectarian politicians should be appointed to the crucial ministries of defence and the interior, they urged, because they would be responsible for rebuilding a strong national army and security service. Under this proposal, the newly elected Iraqi government would, in effect, have been sidelined.

We’ll have to see, for no one knows. My question is, why would an American voice pull any weight in a sovereign Iraq?

Saudi Ambassador to US, al-Faisal, Abruptly Leaves Post

Thus shocking everyone.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, flew out of Washington yesterday after informing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and his staff that he would be leaving the post after only 15 months on the job, according to U.S. officials and foreign envoys. There has been no formal announcement from the kingdom.

The article indicates that Turki al-Faisal desired to spend more time with his family but also points out the the sitting foreign minister and Turki al-Faisal’s brother, Prince Saud al-Faisal, is “ailing” and Turki al-Faisal is a possible replacement.

Like most of the MENA, Saudi Arabia is facing a generational change in the coming decade or so. This is but one symptom of that coming change.

[2006-12-15 10:34 PM] Foreign Policy reports

FP editors often go to dinner parties and other events in Washington and elsewhere, and we sometimes hear things that don’t go reported. For instance, an FP editor heard from a reliable and well-placed source that Turki resigned because Prince Bandar, his predecessor as ambassador and a close personal friend of the Bush family, had been going behind his back and negotiating directly with the White House over what to do in Iraq. Bandar, son of Defense Minister Sultan bin AbdulAziz, is currently the Saudi national security advisor, but he’s also vying for the foreign minister job that Turki hopes to inherit from his ailing brother, Saud. Turki was apparently furious when he left.

The Religious Layout of the Greater Middle East

Mark I Levenstein writing at Foreign Policy’s internal blog the Passport passes along a few pointers to incoming chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Silvestre Reyes, who like most Americans has no idea about the MENA and it’s religious intricacies. Read the full link here, here are some of the more important details…