The creation of Hamastan?
In the wake of an all out civil war in the Gaza Strip, Hamas forces have beat the forces of Fatah (at times brutally) and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) out of Gaza. Immediately this was seen as a failure of the Bush administrations vision for the ME and an end to the prospect of peace between Israelis and Palestinians and a Palestinian two-state solution. Well, at least for the time being.
Without skipping a beat, many are now saying that this may isolate Hamas in Gaza and open up an avenue for progress in the West Bank where Fatah is still viable. Israel has requested that the new landscape in Palestine view the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as two separate entities. I’m sure someone has suggested sending aid to the West Bank Palestinians and not those in Gaza. Of course we heard similar claims after Hamas won the Palestinian election. The claim then was that they wouldn’t be able to govern and they would become unpopular and weaken culminating in another round of elections where Fatah would resume control. That never happened and Hamas is not weakened and not out of power (although the government they were part of no longer stands according the Abbas) and they currently have full control of a significant territory.
Holiday Roundup
As you may have noticed, I spent the holiday’s blog free. Therefore, I will now brief some of the main stories that I missed from both the media and blogs. In the likely case that I’ve missed something, please leave a comment. (note: I’m saving a separate post on Saddam Hussein’s hanging for later.)
The Palestinian Conflict
Fatah and Hamas reach agreement
A top Palestinian security official said Tuesday that Hamas and Fatah officials had agreed to pull their armed men off the streets of Gaza City after more than a week of rampant street violence.
The two sides also agreed to form a joint operations room with the Fatah-led security forces to respond quickly to any outbreaks of violence, the official said.
The agreement was reached after intense mediation by Egypt, the official said. A tenuous truce signed Sunday broke down within 24 hours, as violence continued on both sides.
Under the current deal, only Palestinian police would be allowed to patrol the streets with weapons, the official said. The withdrawal will begin within hours, he added.
A similar deal was announced earlier this week and lasted a matter of hours. I’ll update when this one collapses.
In related news, Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has again called for “…an independent Palestinian state is established in territories captured by Israel in the 1967 Six Day War.”
…Haniyeh said the truce could last as long as 20 years, after an independent Palestinian state is established in territories captured by Israel in the 1967 Six Day War.
During his speech, the Palestinian prime minister also called on the warring Palestinian factions to desist infighting and unite together against Israel.
Who says Hamas refuses to acknowledge Israel… (/snark)
[2006-12-20 9:24 PM] As expected, within hours of the new truce continuing violence has threatened the relative calm in Gaza.
Israeli Settlements, Palestinan Land
One salient point in the ongoing land dispute between the Israelis and Palestinians was solidified a month, or so, ago by Peace Now (.pdf). [What is peace now?] This point being that the state of Israel never formally annexed the West Bank and that area remains a spoil of war. Therefore, international law requires Israel – as an occupying power – to protect the property rights of those people residing in the area in question. This report concludes that the rights of many Palestinians have been violated. This is confirmed using information provided by the Israeli government and it appears that the effort to settle the occupied areas was and is a violation of “the landmark Elon More decision of the High Court of Justice in 1979” (p.3- 4).
This is the first time this data has been analyzed and made public. The analysis indicates a direct violation of Israeli law, carried out by the state at the command of the so-called “architects and leaders of the settlement movement” (p. 3). From this conclusion you can say that the state of Israel has failed to ensure the rights of thousands of Palestinians. This study is a comment on the settlement enterprise and the states role in that procedure. In addition, this act was and is a violation of international laws such as the 4th Geneva Accords and the Hague Agreement; not just established laws in Israel pertaining to its occupation of the West Bank. In conclusion this study finds that a large amount of private Palestinian land was settled by Israel.
Key findings:
Palestinians privately own nearly 40% of the land on which Israeli settlements were built. Palestinians privately own more than 40% of the land located in Israeli “settlement blocs.” More than 3400 buildings were contracted on private Palestinian land.
More coverage:
The Washington Post
The BBC
A Palestinian Civil War?
The Passport points out that things continue to simmer between the two top factions in the Palestinian territories. An Israeli intel report indicates that Iran may be training Hamas fighters.
Israeli military officials said Monday that dozens, perhaps hundreds, of Hamas militants recently left the Gaza Strip to receive advanced military training in Iran.
The training is similar to that received by thousands of Hezbollah guerrillas from Lebanon over the past few years, and Israel fears it will greatly improve Hamas’ military capability in any future battle with Israel Defense Forces troops in Gaza, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the matter.
…
The mass training of Hamas fighters in Iran is a new development reflecting the growing alliance between Shiite Iran and the Sunni Hamas movement, Israel warned.
This development comes as the Palestinian president has called for new elections; a move Hamas has rejected. This, in addition to other events, brings the territories closer to a civil war (if one isn’t already happening).
[2006-12-18 2:42 PM] From The Guardian (h/t John Robb) in an article entitled ‘This looks like civil war’ – Palestinians battle on the streets:
Mr Haniyeh’s trip abroad, during which he secured promises of around $350m in funding from Iran, Qatar and Sudan, was seen by many Palestinians as an endorsement of his rule. “That was a message for people here that he received legitimacy in the Arab world,” said Mr Khatib.
Despite the donations, Hamas remains far short of the approximately $600m Israel has kept from the Palestinian Authority in tax revenues. But the economic crisis does not seem to have dampened Hamas’s support. Mr Khatib said his polling research suggested Hamas would keep its majority if elections were called now.
That is, if they participate…
[2006-12-18 3:04 PM] Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan calls the call for new elections “…a ‘very negative’ move so soon after the last Palestinian elections.”
[2006-12-19 2:15 PM] Mark I Levenstein provides deeper analysis of the existing poll data between the two factions; Hamas and Fatah. Along with a brief look at the constitutionality of this possible move by Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah
The Religious Layout of the Greater Middle East
Mark I Levenstein writing at Foreign Policy’s internal blog the Passport passes along a few pointers to incoming chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Silvestre Reyes, who like most Americans has no idea about the MENA and it’s religious intricacies. Read the full link here, here are some of the more important details…
Read more »
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